Michael Raynor discusses the complexities of strategy in uncertain environments, particularly in the context of a flawed Canadian study recommending hydrogen buses alongside battery-electric ones. He highlights significant discrepancies in cost projections and the longevity of fuel cells versus batteries, suggesting that the assumptions made in the study could lead to a $100 million miscalculation favoring battery electric buses. Raynor emphasizes the importance of realistic data and the need for better scenario modeling in transit planning.
New Flyer faces scrutiny for its hydrogen bus strategy, which may jeopardize its market share due to inferior battery-electric offerings. The Canadian Urban Transit Research and Innovation Consortium (CUTRIC) is criticized for conflicts of interest, particularly with fossil fuel companies on its board, raising concerns about its commitment to decarbonization. The Zero Emissions Transit Fund"s definition of zero emissions is also questioned, as it may favor gray hydrogen over more sustainable options.
New Flyer, North America's leading transit bus manufacturer, faces strategic challenges as it supports hydrogen buses, which have proven less reliable and more costly than battery-electric alternatives. Despite potential short-term gains from subsidies, this approach risks alienating customers who may turn to more efficient options, ultimately jeopardizing New Flyer’s market position.
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